Posts tagged Covid
World Economic Forum CBDC analysis in the era of Populism, Institutionalism, and Hofstede's Cultural DNA
World Economic Forum CBDC analysis in the era of Populism, Institutionalism, and Hofstede's Cultural DNA

We anchor our writing around the World Economic Forum 223 page report on CBDCs and stablecoins. The analysis highlights the key conclusions across several white papers in the report. We then add a layer of meta analysis around the language in the report, and question what it is trying to accomplish, and whether that will work with the Web3 revolution. This leads us to think about the tension between populism, as represented by crypto, and institutionalism, as represented by banking structures. We discuss theories of cultural and national DNA, and the rise of populism, as difficult problems to solve for any global alignment.

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central bank / CBDC, macroeconomics, things that are not true, philosophy, regulation & compliance, social & community, narrative zeitgeist, enterprise blockchain, stablecoins, civilization and politicsLex SokolinWorld Economic Forum, Hofstede, Covid
Apple and Google help with government contact tracing, setting stage for war over Data
Apple and Google help with government contact tracing, setting stage for war over Data

This week, we dive into the social, economic, and financial implications of data in a post-COVID world. As Apple and Google work to build out the government's contact tracing apps to combat pandemic, what Pandora's box are we opening without consideration? As Plaid reaches into payroll data to accelerate small business bailouts, what power do we hand to aggregators? Will dignity-preserving solutions come to market in time? The opportunity for decentralized identity and data storage is clearer than ever. Or will fear drive us to make permanent compromises?

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philosophy, macroeconomics, covid pandemic, embedded finance, identity and privacyLex SokolinApple, Google, Covid, Napster, Plaid, IPFS / Filecoin
Why Fintech Venture Capital firms are not returning your calls and emails
Why Fintech Venture Capital firms are not returning your calls and emails

We look at why venture capital investors are slowing down, and the dynamics of how their portfolios work under duress. We talk about the incentives of limited partners to derisk exposure, the implication that has on cash reserves, new deals, and fundraising. We also touch on how the various Fintech themes are responding to an increase in digital interaction while seeing fundamental economic challenges. Shrewd competitors will be able to consolidate their positions and gain share during the crisis, but that will have to come from the balance sheet, not intermittent growth equity checks.

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venture capital, covid pandemic, asset management, ICO / IEO, neobank, roboadvisor, small businessLex SokolinCovid, Binance, CoinMarketCap, Finch Capital, Chime, Square
Why $2 trillion is barely enough for the coming unemployment spike, expected 20%+ GDP slow-down, and small business crunch
Why $2 trillion is barely enough for the coming unemployment spike, expected 20%+ GDP slow-down, and small business crunch

Another heavy week. It is hard to find the right, or even the interesting, thing to say. I look at why the $2 trillion in US bailouts may not even be enough to stave off the economic damage. In particular, I am alarmed by the large and fast rise of unemployment claims (higher than 2008 peak), estimates that GDP may fall by 20-30%, and the broad impact on small business. Small businesses have 27 days of cash on hand, and power half of our economies through both employment and output. So how do we meet this challenge? What strength should we draw on in the moment of doubt to become the artists of tomorrow?

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macroeconomics, covid pandemic, asset management, small business, fixed incomeLex SokolinCovid, GDP, SoftBank
Slowing GDP growth by 1.5% is like another 10 million people getting infected with coronovirus, and other analysis on financial fragility
Slowing GDP growth by 1.5% is like another 10 million people getting infected with coronovirus, and other analysis on financial fragility

I hope that you and yours are OK, socially distanced and stocked on essentials. Whether you feel it yet or not in daily life, the world is bracing for coronovirus impact. In this week's analysis, I look at the difficult trade-offs between health and economy, and try to quantify the impact of the likely slow-down. We look at some grim but useful concepts, like (1) the value of a statistical life, (2) what happened to the Soviet economy and life expectancy after perestroika, and (3) how our financial machines (NYSE, Robinhood, Maker DAO) are cracking at the edges. If you can do one thing -- be kind and gracious with each other as some things inevitably break.

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covid pandemic, macroeconomics, philosophy, fixed income, exchanges / cap mkts, decentralized financeLex SokolinValue of Life, Covid, GDP, Robinhood, NYSE, MakerDAO
How Coronovirus impacts Fintech, Financial Markets, and the global Economy
How Coronovirus impacts Fintech, Financial Markets, and the global Economy

I look at how the news about the spread of the coronovirus are cracking the global economic machine. Some may argue that the number of people effected is still low -- but that misses the entire point. The shock of a global pandemic has revealed weakness in the financial machine, sending the stock markets falling 10% year-to-date. Gross domestic product growth is expected to slow by billions of dollars, governments and central banks are unable to implement policy to compensate with rates at historic lows and borrowing at historic highs, public market valuations will tumble arithmetically, and private Fintech companies will lose a path to exit. At least that's what the conspiracy theorists want you to think!

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covid pandemic, narrative zeitgeist, macroeconomics, fixed income, venture capital, exchanges / cap mktsLex SokolinCovid, China, GDP, Credit Karma, Zoom, Mint.com, Bitcoin, Gold